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Amlan Nanda's avatar

All of this will be moot if the US does not figure out a way to keep the international EE and CS PhD students educated in elite US universities. The H1B visa is way overdue to make way to some kind of ranking/points-based system instead of the anachronistic lottery system from the 90s.

It will kill 2 birds in 1 stone; it will largely get rid of the fraud, abuse and low-wage job replacement issue raised by the system's critics and will also help retain the best and brightest in the country.

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David Muccigrosso's avatar

Noah - Just want to add some context.

ASML (my employer) is basically the only company that can make commercial EUV machines. There's an outside chance that China may be able to leapfrog ASML by making advances based on some startup's tech somewhere, but it's not likely - it's like betting on the Russians to make a better stealth jet just because they bought the startup that owns that "invisibility cloak" fabric.

The core problem with EUV [ed: which I've personally worked on!] is that, in the most professional jargon I can summon, IT'S REALLY FUCKING HARD. Even ASML with all of our internal access to EUV IP can just barely keep the machines working. It's not because we're doing anything wrong (at least, not wronger than anyone else in any other industry), it's because the tech is so damned sensitive, it's a (professional jargon warning) FUCKING MIRACLE that it works at all.

Even if some spy magically handed China all of our IP tomorrow, it'd still take their best engineers and scientists at least a decade, if not two, to reverse-engineer an EUV machine. It's not that it's technically unfeasible for anyone else to develop EUV. It'd just cost ~$100-200B over a decade-plus, and no one has that kind of scratch sitting around.

[Ed: This isn't like the Russians reverse-engineering nuclear weapons, where you just need to throw enough money and minds at it to invent a bomb you can manufacture on the cheap at relatively low precision. Rather, it's the highest-precision industrial tooling effort _in the history of mankind_. Reverse-engineering EUV from scratch is about 300 separate Manhattan Project-level efforts, and any one of them can take down the entire enterprise.]

So yeah, as things stand today, the "soft blockade" should give the West plenty of time to build up semiconductor capacity, even under the most wildly pessimistic scenario.

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