I always wish I can find something to quibble with but I cant. While it isnt just one issue, the retirement age of 62 is ridiculous and this is a powerful variable. would love to see the projections if moved to 65? And 65 is not old when LE is 80.
The problem is that biological ageing accelerates after 60 and this fact is amplified in people's minds by the media to the point where it's assumed that in your 70's you'll be battling ill-health and fending off the Reaper. Add to that a previous generation where the middle classes often retired in their mid-50's and the demand for earlier retirement is working in the opposite direction to our fiscal requirements.
I don't buy that mid 50s retirement was common anywhere (at least in the era since life expectancy has increased into the high 70s / low 80s). That's a 25 year retirement. With 22 years in childhood / education that's 47 years out of 80 not working. It's simply not sustainable at anything close to our current standard of living.
If one is not working in heavy physical labor (which most covered people are not) there is not under a general healthy population with access to good, if stereotypically rude and bureaucratic health care, to work until 70.
the mediatised image is retiring down to the countryside to run a B&B or other idealised countryside type hobby-job after you retire from your office job
Noah: an item you neglect in the overview is (I speak from direct experience in addition to the econometrics) is how unfriendly the overall French regulatory, tax, employment low etc. set-up is (in its ensemble, not analysed piecemeal) to new growith firm creation and entrepreneurial firms.
There is corrolary to the Abundance concept in the USA - recognition of the effect of bureaucracy cruft and death from a thousand cuts. France needs the Draghi reforms as badly, even worse than his native Italy.
The poor coherence there (band-aid reforms) strikes me as closely associated with the retirement reform problem - where the 'labor elite' of essentially older workers who are in 'CDI' contracts camp on priviledge and rigid structure that's great for those inside the walls so to speak but leaves swaths of the population (younger and certainly more 'immigrant' [sadly in France 'immigrant' gets applied to 2nd, 3rd gen people... and not just by LePen's people]) out in the cold. I know from doing hiring, and the pain of firing, I avoid like death CDI hire if I can.
First of all, love the YouTube video you linked in the end - Just came across it myself the other day, absolutely hilarious, and this current wave of riots begs for a sequel:D
On a more serious note - You definitely hit the nail on the head, and France's case proves that the welfare state of constant promises without underlying economics has reached its end, and the main reason behind the crises is that this understanding hasn't yet reached the French heads. French democratically elected politicians are facing an impossible challenge, and unfortunately, with the protesting nature of the French constituents, they will all cave eventually, further exacerbating public finances. France needs transparent communication with its public, and politicians from all sides should put aside politics, temporarily, and agree on the need for honest messaging about the country's dire finances because without that there will always be that one guy who ends up winning by making even more promises, that the country just simply can't afford currently. It's a complicated situation, and honestly (and unfortunately), I can't really see the French find their way out of it because decades of welfare spending has spoiled them to the point that they are completely detached from reality...
Being a conservative has its drawbacks. We sometimes are slow to respond to changes. Progress in and of itself is not bad. Improving the lives of its citizens is also not bad. Until it is.
Responsible conservatives were hammered by the American Left, vilified by Democrats in Congress. Mitt Romney and John McCain were called Hitlers. Paul Ryan was throwing Granny off a cliff.
What some of the OBBB bill did was repeal the massive increases of the American Rescue Plan. A nearly 50% increase in the Federal Budget.
I freely admit Trump and his band of sycophants are doing is not conservative. America is facing an existential fiscal crisis. It is irresponsible for both parties to ignore and yet they do.
Always more concerned with winning rather than thoughtful budgeting. But Democrats are responsible for the push for more and more spending through the decades. Least Trump be call a Scrooge he has said the GOP will do nothing about entitlements. Large due to the fear of Democrats screaming Republican are killing Social Security. We can and should be truthful.
Now we have an economic plunderer in the WH continuing to do great damage and now promising insane giveaways. We are screwed. Our riots may be just as bad.
"the people are gravitating toward whoever promises to stop immigration"
Once again, the far right have found a way to blame everything on immigration, and they've been helped on their way by the billionaires that control almost all social media. The number of billionaires and the percentage of all wealth they control are a result of the exponential rise in inequality in developed countries since neoliberalism took hold in developed countries in the 1980s, and has left the low and, increasingly, middle class people without enough money to pay for basic needs like housing and education.
Those billionaires now resist any attempt to tax their wealth, which would have zero material impact on their lifestyles. They control the politicians and the narratives in social media, and prefer to let people blame all the issues on immigration instead of on them. Hitler used the same playbook in the 1930s, blaming Germany's economic woes on the Jews instead of the real causes.
I question whether a sustainable welfare state can exist over the long term in a democracy. It is based on the fundamental conflict of interest that the people receiving welfare benefits also get to vote on the amount of those benefits. There do seem to be a significant number of counterexamples in Europe e.g. Germany, but this model still hasn't hit 100 years and I am not optimistic that the fundamental flaw will not reveal itself there too.
As for the immigration issue it seems like there is a clear solution for the center parties of Europe by the Denmark example. Their center-left party has taken the immigration restrictions from the right while preserving the rest of the center-left platform and it has worked out brilliantly. Turns out nobody really is interested in all that far right nonsense outside of the immigration issue. I don't understand why other center parties in Europe haven't followed suit. It really seems like that immigration is basically a religious belief among the bureaucratic class of most western nations.
I always wish I can find something to quibble with but I cant. While it isnt just one issue, the retirement age of 62 is ridiculous and this is a powerful variable. would love to see the projections if moved to 65? And 65 is not old when LE is 80.
The problem is that biological ageing accelerates after 60 and this fact is amplified in people's minds by the media to the point where it's assumed that in your 70's you'll be battling ill-health and fending off the Reaper. Add to that a previous generation where the middle classes often retired in their mid-50's and the demand for earlier retirement is working in the opposite direction to our fiscal requirements.
I don't buy that mid 50s retirement was common anywhere (at least in the era since life expectancy has increased into the high 70s / low 80s). That's a 25 year retirement. With 22 years in childhood / education that's 47 years out of 80 not working. It's simply not sustainable at anything close to our current standard of living.
Bollocks.
If one is not working in heavy physical labor (which most covered people are not) there is not under a general healthy population with access to good, if stereotypically rude and bureaucratic health care, to work until 70.
the mediatised image is retiring down to the countryside to run a B&B or other idealised countryside type hobby-job after you retire from your office job
Noah: an item you neglect in the overview is (I speak from direct experience in addition to the econometrics) is how unfriendly the overall French regulatory, tax, employment low etc. set-up is (in its ensemble, not analysed piecemeal) to new growith firm creation and entrepreneurial firms.
There is corrolary to the Abundance concept in the USA - recognition of the effect of bureaucracy cruft and death from a thousand cuts. France needs the Draghi reforms as badly, even worse than his native Italy.
The poor coherence there (band-aid reforms) strikes me as closely associated with the retirement reform problem - where the 'labor elite' of essentially older workers who are in 'CDI' contracts camp on priviledge and rigid structure that's great for those inside the walls so to speak but leaves swaths of the population (younger and certainly more 'immigrant' [sadly in France 'immigrant' gets applied to 2nd, 3rd gen people... and not just by LePen's people]) out in the cold. I know from doing hiring, and the pain of firing, I avoid like death CDI hire if I can.
First of all, love the YouTube video you linked in the end - Just came across it myself the other day, absolutely hilarious, and this current wave of riots begs for a sequel:D
On a more serious note - You definitely hit the nail on the head, and France's case proves that the welfare state of constant promises without underlying economics has reached its end, and the main reason behind the crises is that this understanding hasn't yet reached the French heads. French democratically elected politicians are facing an impossible challenge, and unfortunately, with the protesting nature of the French constituents, they will all cave eventually, further exacerbating public finances. France needs transparent communication with its public, and politicians from all sides should put aside politics, temporarily, and agree on the need for honest messaging about the country's dire finances because without that there will always be that one guy who ends up winning by making even more promises, that the country just simply can't afford currently. It's a complicated situation, and honestly (and unfortunately), I can't really see the French find their way out of it because decades of welfare spending has spoiled them to the point that they are completely detached from reality...
Unfortunately, I suspect denial of fiscal reality can outlast the Fifth Republic.
Being a conservative has its drawbacks. We sometimes are slow to respond to changes. Progress in and of itself is not bad. Improving the lives of its citizens is also not bad. Until it is.
Responsible conservatives were hammered by the American Left, vilified by Democrats in Congress. Mitt Romney and John McCain were called Hitlers. Paul Ryan was throwing Granny off a cliff.
What some of the OBBB bill did was repeal the massive increases of the American Rescue Plan. A nearly 50% increase in the Federal Budget.
I freely admit Trump and his band of sycophants are doing is not conservative. America is facing an existential fiscal crisis. It is irresponsible for both parties to ignore and yet they do.
Always more concerned with winning rather than thoughtful budgeting. But Democrats are responsible for the push for more and more spending through the decades. Least Trump be call a Scrooge he has said the GOP will do nothing about entitlements. Large due to the fear of Democrats screaming Republican are killing Social Security. We can and should be truthful.
Now we have an economic plunderer in the WH continuing to do great damage and now promising insane giveaways. We are screwed. Our riots may be just as bad.
"the people are gravitating toward whoever promises to stop immigration"
Once again, the far right have found a way to blame everything on immigration, and they've been helped on their way by the billionaires that control almost all social media. The number of billionaires and the percentage of all wealth they control are a result of the exponential rise in inequality in developed countries since neoliberalism took hold in developed countries in the 1980s, and has left the low and, increasingly, middle class people without enough money to pay for basic needs like housing and education.
Those billionaires now resist any attempt to tax their wealth, which would have zero material impact on their lifestyles. They control the politicians and the narratives in social media, and prefer to let people blame all the issues on immigration instead of on them. Hitler used the same playbook in the 1930s, blaming Germany's economic woes on the Jews instead of the real causes.
a fine example of One Pre-Set Answer Ideological Knee Jerk without regard to actual case and data.
billionnaires...
I question whether a sustainable welfare state can exist over the long term in a democracy. It is based on the fundamental conflict of interest that the people receiving welfare benefits also get to vote on the amount of those benefits. There do seem to be a significant number of counterexamples in Europe e.g. Germany, but this model still hasn't hit 100 years and I am not optimistic that the fundamental flaw will not reveal itself there too.
As for the immigration issue it seems like there is a clear solution for the center parties of Europe by the Denmark example. Their center-left party has taken the immigration restrictions from the right while preserving the rest of the center-left platform and it has worked out brilliantly. Turns out nobody really is interested in all that far right nonsense outside of the immigration issue. I don't understand why other center parties in Europe haven't followed suit. It really seems like that immigration is basically a religious belief among the bureaucratic class of most western nations.
(typo, disinterested where you mean uninterested, near the end)